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18) Pres. Santos Ceding Too Much or Not?

By Steve Salisbury , Bogota, Colombia, February 23, 2016

Has Pres. Santos, desirous to meet his March 23 “deadline” for an overall peace agreement, ceded too much to the FARC on key matters in the agreement on victims/justice? Some would say yes, noting that under the victims’/justice agreement, FARC … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Where Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast…

19) Would Pres. Santos’ Cure Be Worse than the Malady, or the Best, Simplest Way? The Question of Ratifying an Eventual Overall Peace Accord

By Steve Salisbury , Bogota, Colombia, February 23, 2016

This new complex judicial equation and Pres. Santos’s steam-rolling through the Colombian Congress, controlled by his political coalition, controversial bills for legislative and Constitutional reform—including a new-fangled plebiscite–aimed to … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Where Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast…

20) Former President/Now Senator Uribe’s Possible Next Moves? The Retired Military Voice, Political Parties

By Steve Salisbury , Bogota, Colombia, February 23, 2016

Juan Manuel Santos and Álvaro Uribe

As for the Uribistas and Centro Democratico, what could be their next moves? A peace process would be stronger with the participation of the political opposition—even if in only an observer or “watchdog” role—and would be incomplete without it. But … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Where Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast…

21) Other Questions about the Victims’/Justice Agreement

By Steve Salisbury , Bogota, Colombia, February 23, 2016

The voids, lagoons, still-unresolved imprecisions, and concerns go even beyond the main points Human Rights Watch takes issue with in its critical report about the agreement on victims/justice. The agreement on victims’/justice has basically a … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Where Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast…

22) Extradition, Cooperation on International Judicial and Security Issues

By Steve Salisbury , Bogota, Colombia, February 23, 2016

The United States State Department has made clear that US extradition orders against some FARC members remain intact and active, and that an eventual Colombian government-FARC peace accord protecting the FARC from extradition by the Colombian … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Where Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast…

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About the Author:

Steve Salisbury is a private consultant with a background in media as a photojournalist, war correspondent, TV producer, analyst and commentator, covering Latin America. Read More…

Index

  • Preface
  • Introduction: Difficult Complexities Yet to Resolve, Despite Evidently Growing Optimism
  • 1) No Colombian Government-FARC Overall Peace Agreement by March 23 and No Guarantee for It in 2016
  • 2) What about Colombia’s Second-Largest Guerrilla Group, the “National Liberation Army” (ELN), in This?
  • 3) FARC Unilateral “Indefinite” Cease-Fire or Undeclared “Bilateral” Cease-Fire, and Eventual Declared Bilateral “Definitive” Cease-Fire
  • 4) Could Calls for a Military Solution Spike on Potential, New Frustrations over Prolonged Talks? What Is the Balance of Forces?
  • 5) With the Colombian State’s Overwhelming Military Superiority, Why Even Have Peace Talks with the Guerrillas?
  • 6) What Would Happen with No Peace Talks?
  • 7) Plan Colombia and the Peace Talks
  • 8) “Black-Op” Smart Bombs, FARC Decision-Making Structure
  • 9) Human Rights
  • 10) Why Is the FARC Still in Arms? Its Roots, What Does It Want?
  • 11) What about FARC Weapons? What about the Colombian Armed Forces after an Overall Peace Accord Is Signed?
  • 12) Would There Be Armed Dissident or Splinter Groups Peeling Away from the FARC after an Overall Peace Accord?
  • 13) Does the FARC See the Clock Winding Down on Pres. Santos a “Strategic Advantage”?
  • 14) Does the FARC Want to Run the Clock Out on Pres Santos and Wait for the Next President (Who Could Be Better or Worse for the FARC)?
  • 15) What Can Be Done to Keep Up Confidence in the Peace Process among Colombian Public Opinion? “Memo of Understanding” to End Conflict
  • 16) Some Things that Could Risk to Undercut Confidence in Peace Process
  • 17) Smoke-and-Mirrors Impunity or an Historic Brilliant Balance between Peace and Justice in Victims’/Justice Agreement?
  • 18) Pres. Santos Ceding Too Much or Not?
  • 19) Would Pres. Santos’ Cure Be Worse than the Malady, or The Best, Simplest Way? The Question of Ratifying an Eventual Overall Peace Accord
  • 20) Former President/Now Senator Uribe’s Possible Next Moves? The Retired Military Voice, Political Parties
  • 21) Other Questions about the Victims’/Justice Agreement
  • 22) Extradition, Cooperation on International Judicial and Security Issues
  • 23) The FARC’s “Simon Trinidad”
  • 24) A Decision Boils Down to…
  • Sidebar: Some of the Hardest Issues to Resolve at This Juncture in Colombian Peace Process

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Sidebar: Some of the Hardest Issues to Resolve at This Juncture in Colombian Peace Process

What about the FARC and extradition?

What about the FARC's "Simon Trinidad"?

Justice or impunity?

Will time run out on Pres. Santos?

A "Memo of Understanding" to End War, if March 23 "deadline" Is Missed?

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